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NFL News
NFL Playoff Betting
2011-01-05
Betting doesn’t get any better than the NFL Playoffs at Sportsbook.com. Bet on Wild-Card Weekend, Divisional Playoff matchups, the AFC Championship, NFC Championship and the Super Bowl. Sportsbook.com is home to the most prop bets as well as future bets on the Super Bowl winner. Will the New England Patriots win their fourth Lombardi trophy or can another team upset the favored Patriots? Bet on the NFL Playoffs now, only at Sportsbook.com.
Chicago Bears vs. Dallas Cowboys betting preview
2010-09-16
Sunday, 1:00 p.m. EDT
Sportsbook.com Lines: Dallas -7.5; Total: 40.5
The Cowboys unexpectedly dropped their season opener Sunday night to the Washington Redskins. They also lost LB DeMarcus Ware with a stinger, but further tests showed no damage and Ware is expected to play Sunday. Considering Ware is the best defensive player in Dallas, with 65.5 sacks and 23 forced fumbles in five-plus NFL seasons, this is great news for Dallas fans and loyal bettors.
Reports out of Dallas are also positive about its offensive line. RT Marc Colombo and LG Kyle Kosier, who both missed Week 1 with knee injuries, are both expected to suit up against the Bears. Colombo was sorely missed in the Redskins loss, as his replacement Alex Barron had a terrible day. These additions will make QB Tony Romo feel more secure against a strong Bears pass defense that allowed just 148 yards on 34 pass attempts in their win over Detroit.
These teams have only met twice since 2000, with Dallas winning both meetings handily (21-7 in 2004 and 34-10 in 2007). This betting trend found at Sportsbook.com expects another Dallas win based on Bears coach Lovie Smith’s past history coming off a strong offensive game.
Smith is 1-9 ATS (-8.9 Units) after gaining 6 or more yards/play in their previous game as the coach of CHICAGO. The average score was CHICAGO 18.1, OPPONENT 20.8 - (Rating = 2*).
After reading the following betting trend, the Under also seems like a wise bet: Play Under - Any team against the total (CHICAGO) - in conference games, first 2 weeks of the year, non-playoff team from prior season who won their last 2 games. (34-13 over the last 10 seasons.) (72.3%, +19.7 units. Rating = 2*).
CHICAGO is 8-1 UNDER (+6.9 Units) as an underdog over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was CHICAGO 15.4, OPPONENT 23.1 - (Rating = 1*).
After placing your NFL bets at Sportsbook.com, be sure to make your picks for the $100,000 Perfect Parlay and the $5,000 Week 2 NFL Survivor Pool.
Biggest NFL Drop-offs in 2010
2010-06-01
There are always teams that have fantastic seasons and then completely fall off the map. In my opinion, a few teams seem like prime candidates to go down in flames this year. Here are my picks for biggest drop-off teams for the upcoming season. Knowing who will fall is huge for NFL betting. If you can see before most bettors that teams are on the decline you can make a killing betting on NFL games.
- The New York Jets: With a rookie coach and quarterback, the Jets made a legendary run last season. The stars aligned for them and they slid right into the conference title game. Too bad they ran into the juggernaut that is the Colts. With loss of Leon Washington and the general uncertainly of Mark Sanchez, the near future does not look so bright for the Jets. Look for Rex Ryan and the crew to come back to earth and have a mediocre at best season.
- The Houston Texans: No, they did not make the playoffs last year, but they did have the best record in franchise history. With that being said, Matt Schaub was healthy for the entire year. This is the first time in his career he has been able to pull that off, and do not be surprised if the injury bug bites Schaub again this season. Look for the Texans to slip back into mediocrity again this season.
- The San Diego Chargers: Norv Turner and the boys had a solid season again last year. The only problem is they blew what should have been a layup game to the Jets in the playoffs. With a shaky draft at best and questions marks on more than a few spots on the defense, look for the Chargers slide down the ladder in a division that seems to get tougher every season.
All of these teams have a great deal of issues to address before the upcoming season. That does not mean, however, that they cannot get everything together and have a great campaign this year. We will just have to wait and see if these teams can get it together for another run or will just be left in the dust. Keep your eyes open when placing your NFL bets as these teams could break your heart, or your parlay! Head over the home of NFL betting www.sportsbook.com where everybody bets.
NFL: Miami vs. Carolina (8:20 PM ET, NFLNetwork)
2009-11-19
The NFL Network brings another Thursday night contest to your living room. This time around, its an inter-conference battle between Miami and Carolina. Both teams are 4-5 and the loser will have a first nail put in the coffin of their postseason hopes. The host Panthers are a 3-point favorite, and having won four of their last six games, are being backed by bettors at Sportsbook.com at a nearly-90% rate. Get more key info on this game on the GAME MATCHUP page.
For any team with a smashmouth running attack, it stands to reason that a strong offensive line and group of running backs would be key. So it’s easy to see why Carolina and Miami might be in a little trouble when they square off in Week 11. The Panthers lost starting left tackle Jordan Gross to a broken ankle in last week’s 28-19 win over Atlanta, while the status of Dolphins Ronnie Brown is officially listed as doubtful. The Wildcat stud left last week’s 25-23 win over Tampa Bay in the third quarter with an ankle injury, though Ricky Williams more than picked up the slack with 102 yards on 20 carries.
Miami and Carolina have met just three times previously and not in Carolina since 1998. The Dolphins swept all three prior meetings, both SU and ATS, holding the Panthers to just 39 points. The fourth meeting could be the deathblow to the loser’s postseason hopes for 2009.
Both teams are 4-5 SU and ATS after nine games and currently on the outside of the playoff picture looking in. Miami has lost three of its four games on the road this season, but that road has been a treacherous one, as all four opponents have a winning record at this point. Under coach Tony Sparano, the ‘Fins are 0-7 ATS when squaring off vs. NFC foes.
Miami’s defense was picked apart late in last week’s game by rookie Josh Freeman for a pair of touchdowns and were bailed out by quarterback Chad Henne’s game-saving field goal dive that secured the win over the Bucs. The Dolphins arrive in Carolina 7-19-1 ATS vs. a team with a losing record.
Carolina stumbled out of the gate with a 0-3 start but has rebounded with victories in four of the last six, due in large part to much-improved play by veteran quarterback Jake Delhomme. In the first three games he threw two touchdowns with seven interceptions, but coming out of the win over the Falcons has now gone interception-free for three in a row. The rededication to the running game has also helped.
DeAngelo Williams has run for 640 yards and five touchdowns over the last five games, while Jonathan Stewart’s numbers are equally impressive (328 yards, five touchdowns). The loss of Gross for the balance of the season is a big one, but it didn’t hurt the ground attack right off the bat. The two still combined for 174 yards against the Falcons last week.
Carolina is only 2-2 at home with one cover and is 0-5 ATS in November off a division upset as underdog. Sportsbook.com has Carolina as three-point favorites, with total of 42.5. This could be a situational wagering conflict. The Panthers are 15-5 ATS vs. poor passing teams like Miami (30th) averaging 175 or less passing yards a game in the second half of the season. While Miami is 9-23 ATS versus rushing teams like Carolina (3rd) averaging 130 or more rushing yards a game after the midpoint of the season.
This is NFL Network telecast which begins at 8:20 Eastern. With Miami’s defense allowing 25.2 points per game, it should be noted that the Panthers are 41-17 ATS vs. teams allowing 24 or more per outing.
The StatFox Power Line shows Carolina by 4, so Sportsbook.com’s opening line price of -3.5 seemed to hit the mark. Thus its strange why bettors are leaning so hard on the Panthers.
NFLPS: Friday Exhibition Football Four Pack
2009-08-14
The NFL continues its first week of preseason football on Friday with four games, all of the inter-conference variety. The AFC hosts two of the game, the NFC the other two. One of the contests boasts a 4-point home favorite, which if you read the NFL Preseason Week 1 strategies article, you know that has proven to be like poison in recent years. In any case, all four games offer unique wagering situations, so we’re here to review each of them.
St. Louis at NY Jets (-4, 33.5), 7:00 PM ET
The Jets have played well in each of the last two preseasons, going 5-2 ATS combined. This year they will be starting over at quarterback with a battle between rookie Mark Sanchez and Kellen Clemens making for one of the more intriguing positional training camp battles in all of football. Typically that bodes well for their teams in terms of covering pointspreads at this time of the year. The other thing in New York’s favor will be the fact that Rex Ryan is beginning his tenure as Head Coach and will be looking to set a tone for the regular season. Of course, the Rams are also in that same situation, with Steve Spagnuolo, former Giants DC, taking over. He inherits a team that has not only endured regular season struggles, but has gone just 4-8 ATS in the preseason over the last three years as well.
The top trend available for this game finds NY Jets are 15-8 ATS (+6.2 Units) in their L23 preseason games with posted totals of 35 or less.
QB Rotations:
St. Louis – Marc Bulger, Kyle Boller, Keith Null, Brock Berlin
NY Jets – Mark Sanchez, Kellen Clemens, Erik Ainge, Chris Pizzotti
StatFox Steve’s Take: As much as dislike the QB rotation for St. Louis, I can’t get over the fact that home favorites of 4-points or more in Week 1 of the preseason are just 5-14 ATS since ’00. Take the Rams.
Minnesota at Indianapolis (-1.5, 35), 7:30 PM ET
If any team in the NFL has become known for tanking its preseason games lately, it has been the Colts. For those of you thinking that things could change this year under new head coach Jim Caldwell, bear in mind that he has been with the organization for the last seven years as QB/Assistant Head Coach. This is a franchise, with a veteran quarterback, that knows what work needs to be done to achieve regular season and postseason success. Minnesota meanwhile, has plenty of work to do at quarterback. After Brett Favre spurned the team a couple weeks back, the job falls to Tavaris Jackson and Sage Rosenfels. Both will play with something to prove over the next four weeks. Under HC Brad Childress, the Vikings are 7-5 ATS in the preseason, including 4-2 on the road.
The top trend available for this game finds Brad Childress as 5-1 ATS (+3.9 Units) in preseason games against AFC opponents as the coach of MINNESOTA.
QB Rotations:
Minnesota – Sage Rosenfels, Tavaris Jackson, John David Booty
Indianapolis – Peyton Manning, Jim Sorgi, Curtis Painter, Chris Crane
StatFox Steve’s Take: I don’t see any reason to believe that Indianapolis will take this preseason any more seriously than they have in recent years. Minnesota meanwhile, has some damage control to accomplish, and a few nice wins in the next four weeks could do that.
Cincinnati at New Orleans (-3, 37), 8:00 PM ET
New Orleans and Cincinnati are both expected to be among the most improved teams in the NFL this season, and both would like to get the exhibition campaign off to a great start when they meet on Friday night. The Bengals are excited about the return of QB Carson Palmer from injury. He’ll see time in this game, along with his brother Jordan. Under HC Marvin Lewis, Cincinnati has gone 13-10 ATS in the preseason and has been one of the few teams that produces OVER’s regularly, as they are 9-2 OVER the total in road games under Lewis. The Saints could help contribute offensively as well, as they come off a season in which they led the NFL in points. Despite that, they did not make the playoffs. There is a hunger and optimism in New Orleans that hasn’t been around in awhile as the team prepares for ’09.
The top trend available for this game finds NEW ORLEANS is 6-16 ATS (-11.6 Units) as a home favorite since 1993.
QB Rotations:
Cincinnati – Carson Palmer, JT O’Sullivan, Jordan Palmer
New Orleans – Drew Brees, Mark Brunnell, Joey Harrington
StatFox Steve’s Take: This is one of the few games on the Week 1 schedule where an OVER the total play can even be considered. Both teams have shown OVER tendencies in the preseason, and the posted number is the second highest on the board, meaning oddsmakers see the potential as well.
Denver at San Francisco (-3, 34), 10:00 PM ET
There’s no disputing the fact that Josh McDaniels has made waves with the Broncos in his early days with the organization. He gets the first chance to show what his team will have on the field on Friday night in San Francisco. Very little figures to look familiar to Broncos’ fans, so you can pretty much throw out any past trends regarding Denver’s preseason success or its penchant for playing in higher scoring games. Kyle Orton will be the signal caller for McDaniels, but this is an offense that figures to be an even mix of run and pass. San Francisco has its own QB concerns, namely finding one to call its starter. The organization would love to see former #1 pick Alex Smith step up and claim the spot, but Shaun Hill has proven the more reliable option. This will be the first preseason head coaching experience for either McDaniels or 49ers’ head man Mike Singletary.
The top trend available for this game finds SAN FRANCISCO is 10-2 OVER (+7.8 Units) as a preseason home favorite of 3 points or less since 1993.
QB Rotations:
Denver – Kyle Orton, Chris Simms, Tom Brandstater
San Francisco – Shaun Hill, Alex Smith, Damon Huard, Nate Davis
StatFox Steve’s Take: There are so many changes in the Denver organization that it’s impossible to predict how the Broncos will execute early. However, I trust McDaniels will want this game every bit as much as Singletary or more. In that case, it only makes sense to take the points.
NFL: Philadelphia at Chicago (8:15 PM ET, NBC)
2008-09-26
Philadelphia has come to Chicago four times in the L9 years, leaving with wins each time while going 3-1 ATS. The Eagles will look to make it five straight when they travel to the Windy City for the Sunday night NBC feature game. HC Andy Reid’s team is a 3-point opening line road favorite, and comes in at 2-1 but with injury concerns to RB Brian Westbrook. Still, over 90% of early bettors like the Eagles’ chances.
The role of road chalk is nothing strange to the Eagles, as they are 18-13 ATS in that role under Reid, 49-27 ATS away overall. They are also a strong 17-6 ATS against NFC North opponents. Chicago lost its home opener last week to Tampa in overtime and will be looking to get back to .500 with a big effort here. The Bears have a 2-game road trip after this game, making it all the more important.
Chicago was dealt the strangest schedule of any NFL team in 2008, and it continues with the first of three planned Sunday night games against a conference rival. Philadelphia and hometown hero Donovan McNabb invade Soldier Field in one of the more intriguing matchups on the Week 4 slate. The Bears, 1-2 after failing to protect a 10-point fourth-quarter lead againstTampa Bay last Sunday in their home opener, began the season with two straight on the road and go to Detroit and Atlanta in the weeks to come.
What follows is an odd stretch of nine games (three at home, three on the road, then three more at home) that includes a pair against both Minnesota and Green Bay. Regardless of the opponent, Chicago's margin for error is slim because of its non-explosive offense. And it'll need to put up some points against the Eagles, who've scored 90 points so far. Though quarterback Kyle Orton has been relatively accurate through three games, completing 62.1 percent of his passes, he's averaged 189 yards per outing and didn't throw a touchdown in either of the first two games. The Bears learned in Week 1 he can avoid the kind of Rex Grossman-like mistakes that can cost them a game, but at the same time Weeks 2 and 3 showed Orton may lack the ability to step up and help win one. In Orton's defense, he's not working with a formidable receiver corps.
Brandon Lloyd, who underachieved in two previous NFL stops and until last week hadn't caught a touchdown pass since 2005, is tied for the team lead in catches with 13. And he was a backup for the first two games. Rashied Davis and Marty Booker have combined for 10 catches and 69 yards, and deep threat Devin Hester made just two grabs in the first two weeks before missing the Bucs game with a rib-cage injury.
The Eagles' defense rebounded from a soft performance in Week 2 at Dallas to shut down Pittsburgh in a 15-6 victory. The Bears would be wise to take some chances with Orton down the field and try to loosen the box for rookie running back Matt Forte, who already has 304 yards.
When Philadelphia's on the move, McNabb will no doubt test a secondary still adjusting to a season-ending ankle injury to nickel back Brandon McGowan. McNabb was sharp (21 of 34, 226 yards, one touchdown) in last year's 19-16 home loss to Chicago, though he could be minus Brian Westbrook (ankle) for this game.
PREDICTION
If Hester isn't healthy enough to return, the Bears will not only be hurting on special teams but also more likely to continue their conservative ways on offense. While the Eagles won't score in the 30s, their balance is enough to be the deciding factor.
PHILADELPHIA 19, CHICAGO 16
NFL - New York Giants at Buffalo (1:00 PM ET – FOX)
2007-12-21
Leave it to a Tom Coughlin coached team to make things difficult in the latter part of any season. The Giants have seemingly had the top NFC wildcard spot wrapped up for weeks, but a home loss to Washington and a pair of difficult remaining games have put that in question. Their trip to Buffalo opens back-to-back games vs. the AFC East.
Las Vegas sportsbooks installed the Bills as a 1-1/2 point opening favorite, which has since flipped to the Giants minus-3, with the hosts having been eliminated from playoff contention. New York has seemingly been much more comfortable on the road, going 6-1 SU & 5-2 ATS in ’07. The Bills have been stellar hosts though, going 4-3 SU & 6-1 ATS. Plus, HC Dick Jauron’s teams have gone 13-1 ATS when hosting out-of-conference foes.
The Giants are quickly becoming the very model they had hoped to avoid after last season’s debacle. Early in the year the praise for QB Eli Manning came fast and furious, and now those chants have turned into criticism. The offense has always struggled with turnovers and a lack of discipline and those shortcomings have now come home to roost. Meanwhile the defense is may keep teams in danger in seeking yardage production, but the failures to stop scoring persist.
The Bills will finish on the outside looking in when it comes to the playoffs, but this season can only be viewed as one of growth and progress. Buffalo was expected to struggle as one of the worst in the game, but what was labeled as the reason for low expectation, namely the rise of youth to starting positions, has become a true asset to a team in need of enthusiasm and heart to compete with teams better equipped for success.
Keys to the Game
The Giants are 6-1 and 5-2 ATS this year on the road, making their final journey of the regular season. New York’s offense has been lagging; nonetheless, they have found ways to win. This might benefit Buffalo who is 22-9 ATS when they allow only 5.5 to 6 net passing yards per attempt. If coach Dick Jauron has made one mistake, it has been staying with J.P. Losman too long. Trent Edwards has had much better grasp of the offense. The Giants are 7-0 ATS when they allow 15 to 21 points, winning by almost 10 points per game.
Trends
~ N.Y. Giants are 19-37 ATS vs. poor passing teams averaging 175 or less passing yards a game.
~ Buffalo is 6-0 ATS in games where the line is +3 to -3 this season.
StatFox Edge – Giants cover