NFL: MINNESOTA at NEW ORLEANS (6:40 PM ET, FOX)

For the 2010 NFC Championship Game, Brett Favre returns to the site of his biggest career win ever, hoping to put his new team in position to reach similar lofty heights. Favre won his only Super Bowl in New Orleans while with the Packers, and now, with G

2010-01-22

For the 2010 NFC Championship Game, Brett Favre returns to the site of his biggest career win ever, hoping to put his new team in position to reach similar lofty heights. Favre won his only Super Bowl in New Orleans while with the Packers, and now, with Green bay’s biggest rival, the Vikings, can put himself in position to capture an improbable second title. The Saints are at home and favored by 3.5-points at Sportsbook.com though, and just as hungry as Minnesota to win a first ever NFL title. Betting action is split fairly evenly on the side, but nearly 75% of bettors expect this game to fly over the total of 53.

Favre was phenomenal in Sunday’s rout of Dallas, throwing a career playoff high four TD’s, adding to what has been a MVP-caliber season. Getting past this game won’t be easy though, as the league’s best offense awaits, with another prolific quarterback at the controls, Drew Brees, who’s Saints seemed to pick up where they left off about six weeks ago with a 45-14 win over Arizona in the Divisional Round.

New Orleans was installed as a 4.5-point favorite at opener for the contest, and is right where it wants to be, at home in front of what figures to be a raucous crowd. The Saints are 7-2 SU & 5-4 ATS at home this season while scoring 33.2 PPG. Minnesota is just 4-4 SU & ATS on the road, but is also capable of putting up points, 29.2 PPG thus far. You have to figure Saints coach Sean Payton would love to get into a shootout though, as he is 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) vs. very good offensive teams scoring >=27 PPG as the coach of NEW ORLEANS. The average score in those games was NEW ORLEANS 40.5, OPPONENT 24.3.

This game of course, is unfamiliar territory for both franchises, as neither has ever won a Super Bowl, and the winner will get the chance to do so in two weeks. The Vikings haven’t been in the conference title game since the infamous loss to Atlanta at home in ’99. For as comfortable as he looked on Sunday at the Metrodome, Favre hasn’t won a road playoff game since the ’98 NFC title game. New Orleans is playing for a conference title for the second time ever (’07 loss at Chicago). The Vikings own a 4-0 SU & ATS edge in the head-to-head series since ’02, including a 30-27 win at the Superdonw in October ’08.

Here is StatFox Steve’s take on the NFC title tilt, straight from the Platinum Sheet…In my opinion, the NFC Championship Game comes down to whether or not the Saints offense is “back” from its late season struggles. Can the performance over Arizona’s inept defensive unit really be enough to springboard New Orleans on to Miami? The fact that the Saints are at home makes this answer a little easier, as the Superdome tends to make them faster and more comfortable. Can you believe how good Reggie Bush looked on Saturday? HC Sean Payton’s team averages 33.2 PPG at home and topped the 30-point plateau six times in nine contests as hosts. To me, that indicates that Minnesota is going to have to score at least 30 points itself to win this game. If you don’t think the Vikings can, then by all means you cannot play them against the spread, as if you read the article on pgs 4-5, you’ll see that hosts playing as favorites in the -3 to -9.5 line range in Conference Championship Round games are 13-8 SU & ATS since ’93. The straight up winner is 21-0 ATS in such games! In other words, for both of these contests, you may think getting some extra points might help you, but history has shown that the game winner will cover. With that in mind, I turn to a prolific Money Line FoxSheets Super Situation that will be in play for Sunday’s game: Play On - Favorites of -160 to -475 vs. the money line (NEW ORLEANS) - after a win by 28 or more points against opponent after scoring 30 points or more last game. (31-1 since 1983.) (96.9%, +29.3 units. Rating = 5*). I don’t like the way Minnesota has transformed into a one-dimensional club, and with Brett Favre’s recent road playoff history, I don’t think he can keep up with Drew Brees here. Saints win, 34-20.

Play: Minnesota -3.5

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