NFLPS: Friday Exhibition Football Four Pack
The NFL continues its first week of preseason football on Friday with four games, all of the inter-conference variety. The AFC hosts two of the game, the NFC the other two. One of the contests boasts a 4-point home favorite, which if you read the NFL Pres
2009-08-14
The NFL continues its first week of preseason football on Friday with four games, all of the inter-conference variety. The AFC hosts two of the game, the NFC the other two. One of the contests boasts a 4-point home favorite, which if you read the NFL Preseason Week 1 strategies article, you know that has proven to be like poison in recent years. In any case, all four games offer unique wagering situations, so we’re here to review each of them.
St. Louis at NY Jets (-4, 33.5), 7:00 PM ET
The Jets have played well in each of the last two preseasons, going 5-2 ATS combined. This year they will be starting over at quarterback with a battle between rookie Mark Sanchez and Kellen Clemens making for one of the more intriguing positional training camp battles in all of football. Typically that bodes well for their teams in terms of covering pointspreads at this time of the year. The other thing in New York’s favor will be the fact that Rex Ryan is beginning his tenure as Head Coach and will be looking to set a tone for the regular season. Of course, the Rams are also in that same situation, with Steve Spagnuolo, former Giants DC, taking over. He inherits a team that has not only endured regular season struggles, but has gone just 4-8 ATS in the preseason over the last three years as well.
The top trend available for this game finds NY Jets are 15-8 ATS (+6.2 Units) in their L23 preseason games with posted totals of 35 or less.
QB Rotations:
St. Louis – Marc Bulger, Kyle Boller, Keith Null, Brock Berlin
NY Jets – Mark Sanchez, Kellen Clemens, Erik Ainge, Chris Pizzotti
StatFox Steve’s Take: As much as dislike the QB rotation for St. Louis, I can’t get over the fact that home favorites of 4-points or more in Week 1 of the preseason are just 5-14 ATS since ’00. Take the Rams.
Minnesota at Indianapolis (-1.5, 35), 7:30 PM ET
If any team in the NFL has become known for tanking its preseason games lately, it has been the Colts. For those of you thinking that things could change this year under new head coach Jim Caldwell, bear in mind that he has been with the organization for the last seven years as QB/Assistant Head Coach. This is a franchise, with a veteran quarterback, that knows what work needs to be done to achieve regular season and postseason success. Minnesota meanwhile, has plenty of work to do at quarterback. After Brett Favre spurned the team a couple weeks back, the job falls to Tavaris Jackson and Sage Rosenfels. Both will play with something to prove over the next four weeks. Under HC Brad Childress, the Vikings are 7-5 ATS in the preseason, including 4-2 on the road.
The top trend available for this game finds Brad Childress as 5-1 ATS (+3.9 Units) in preseason games against AFC opponents as the coach of MINNESOTA.
QB Rotations:
Minnesota – Sage Rosenfels, Tavaris Jackson, John David Booty
Indianapolis – Peyton Manning, Jim Sorgi, Curtis Painter, Chris Crane
StatFox Steve’s Take: I don’t see any reason to believe that Indianapolis will take this preseason any more seriously than they have in recent years. Minnesota meanwhile, has some damage control to accomplish, and a few nice wins in the next four weeks could do that.
Cincinnati at New Orleans (-3, 37), 8:00 PM ET
New Orleans and Cincinnati are both expected to be among the most improved teams in the NFL this season, and both would like to get the exhibition campaign off to a great start when they meet on Friday night. The Bengals are excited about the return of QB Carson Palmer from injury. He’ll see time in this game, along with his brother Jordan. Under HC Marvin Lewis, Cincinnati has gone 13-10 ATS in the preseason and has been one of the few teams that produces OVER’s regularly, as they are 9-2 OVER the total in road games under Lewis. The Saints could help contribute offensively as well, as they come off a season in which they led the NFL in points. Despite that, they did not make the playoffs. There is a hunger and optimism in New Orleans that hasn’t been around in awhile as the team prepares for ’09.
The top trend available for this game finds NEW ORLEANS is 6-16 ATS (-11.6 Units) as a home favorite since 1993.
QB Rotations:
Cincinnati – Carson Palmer, JT O’Sullivan, Jordan Palmer
New Orleans – Drew Brees, Mark Brunnell, Joey Harrington
StatFox Steve’s Take: This is one of the few games on the Week 1 schedule where an OVER the total play can even be considered. Both teams have shown OVER tendencies in the preseason, and the posted number is the second highest on the board, meaning oddsmakers see the potential as well.
Denver at San Francisco (-3, 34), 10:00 PM ET
There’s no disputing the fact that Josh McDaniels has made waves with the Broncos in his early days with the organization. He gets the first chance to show what his team will have on the field on Friday night in San Francisco. Very little figures to look familiar to Broncos’ fans, so you can pretty much throw out any past trends regarding Denver’s preseason success or its penchant for playing in higher scoring games. Kyle Orton will be the signal caller for McDaniels, but this is an offense that figures to be an even mix of run and pass. San Francisco has its own QB concerns, namely finding one to call its starter. The organization would love to see former #1 pick Alex Smith step up and claim the spot, but Shaun Hill has proven the more reliable option. This will be the first preseason head coaching experience for either McDaniels or 49ers’ head man Mike Singletary.
The top trend available for this game finds SAN FRANCISCO is 10-2 OVER (+7.8 Units) as a preseason home favorite of 3 points or less since 1993.
QB Rotations:
Denver – Kyle Orton, Chris Simms, Tom Brandstater
San Francisco – Shaun Hill, Alex Smith, Damon Huard, Nate Davis
StatFox Steve’s Take: There are so many changes in the Denver organization that it’s impossible to predict how the Broncos will execute early. However, I trust McDaniels will want this game every bit as much as Singletary or more. In that case, it only makes sense to take the points.
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